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Socialist Review Index (1993–1996) | Socialist Review 174 Contents
From Socialist Review, No. 174, April 1994.
Copyright © Socialist Review.
Copied with thanks from the Socialist Review Archive.
Marked up by Einde O’Callaghan for ETOL.
The economic and political crisis in sub-Saharan Africa is perhaps the longest and most protracted crisis any continent has faced.
Most projections foresee stagnant economies, periodic famines affecting up to 30 million people and a marked deterioration of both education and health. From 1980 to 1990 African living standards have dropped by 30 percent. The marginal increase in growth rates in some countries, that the IMF and the World Bank tout as indications of a turnaround, are unlikely to be sustained.
The concentration by Western countries on Eastern Europe and Russia, where profits are likely to be more lucrative, plus the latest GATT agreement, will further decrease prices of African goods and exclude some products from both East and West markets.
In aid terms, sub-Saharan Africa has now been relegated to a marginal position with $53 billion flowing into Eastern Europe (excluding Russia) and only $16 billion to the whole African continent, while the IMF actually took $4 billion out of the continent as a result of debt servicing. The World Food Council estimates that by 1994 East European aid will reach $35 per head, while Africa will have to be content with a mere $2 per head.
The answer of Western leaders to the crisis has been the systematic propagation of ‘Western democracy’ on the continent by the international financial institutions. The very dictators who were created and tolerated by the West are now being castigated.
The international pressure for democracy in its limited forms has been embraced by most mass organisations in Africa. In particular the trade unions and student organisations are demanding multi-party elections and respect for human rights. As a result most African countries are experiencing strikes and demonstrations by urban populations that see in this revolt a possible solution to their misery. Up to 20 African states are in the process of a transition to multi-party democracy, though in countries such as Zaire and Togo the old regimes are using the army to brutalise the opposition.
Changes have occurred in Zambia and Mali through elections, though the opposition leaders have as yet no alternative programme to alleviate the poverty of most people.
In some instances incumbent parties hurriedly called elections before the opposition had time to organise. This process enhanced the legitimacy of the former rulers, and severely handicapped the opposition.
In Nigeria a fake election was engineered by the military and, having rejected the result, the military is now sharing power between themselves to ensure a just distribution of oil money among the different officers.
In Kenya the elections were marred by vote rigging and the manipulation of electoral law. In areas where the ruling party is strong more constituencies are created than in areas where the opposition is strong. The ruling party produced more voting papers than necessary to allow its members to vote several times and in different areas. During the campaign ethnic violence was encouraged to prove the regime’s assertion that democracy was bad for Africa. This was especially true in areas where the opposition was strongest.
A more tragic example of democracy leading to horrendous violence took place in Angola. The refusal of Unita to accept the results of the election has led to violent civil war.
As in almost all of Africa the prospects for stable Western backed democracies remain bleak. Growth rates are at 2 percent, well below the growth of the population. Since the debt burden of Africa ($170 billion in 1993) is not likely to be forgotten, Africa will have to pay back $13 billion every year in debt servicing. Economic growth will be hard to come by. The World Bank, which is now the main lender in Africa, admits ‘the 200 million Africans living in poverty in 1990 will rise to 300 million even if economic growth improves, and could easily double if gloomier forecasts prove accurate.’
That makes the stirring of the massive South African working class even more vital for the future of the whole continent.
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